Negative Palace Will Go Down

On the 23^rd of December, Crystal Palace sat 17^th in the Premier League, with the worst league record of 2016 out of every professional team in the country. The club had just sacked manager Alan Pardew the day before and were set to announce his successor. The man about to take the helm was disgraced former England manager, Sam Allardyce, a man with a reputation for saving struggling teams from Premier League relegation. In my opinion this was an attempt to batten down the hatches for an upcoming relegation battle. I believe this was a big mistake. A better option would have been to find a coach who could improve the team’s play with fresh ideas and tactics.

Fast forward to today, Palace find themselves in 19^th position with no sign of improvement. In fact, things have got worse. In the 8 league games since Allardyce took over, the team have only gained 4 points from a possible 24. Granted, they have only conceded 14 goals in 8 games compared to 32 in the 17 games under Pardew, but at the other end of the pitch goals have dried up. Before Pardew was sacked, the team had scored 28 league goals at an average of 1.65 per game. Since Allardyce took over, those numbers have dropped to 4 goals in 8 games (0.5 per game). I hate to state the obvious, but you can’t win games without scoring goals.

Since the new year, fellow strugglers Hull City and Swansea City have replaced their managers too, both choosing to take what I believe was a more positive route. The team from Wales appointing Paul Clement on the 3^rd of January and Hull naming Portuguese, Marco Silva, two days later. In Marco Silva, Hull were gaining a coach who had won a league title the previous season, claiming Greece’s Superleague with Olympiacos. Although new Swansea coach Paul Clement had limited prior experience, a brief spell at Championship side Derby County his only previous managerial role, he did come with vast pedigree. Having served as assistant manager at Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, he has worked under world renowned coaches such as Carlo Ancelotti.

In the short amount of time since their respective appointments, the fortunes of both clubs have improved. With Clement leading Swansea City to 4 wins in 6 games, picking up a Barclays Manager of the Month award in the process, they have now leapfrogged Palace to climb out of the drop zone and into 15^th position. Silva’s brief time at Hull City has included a league win over Liverpool and a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford, as well as victory over Bournemouth. Their 2 league losses could be forgiven as they came away to Arsenal and champions elect Chelsea. They also pushed Manchester Utd close in the League Cup semi-final, a 2-1 win in the second leg not quite enough to even the tie on aggregate. Hull City too, have now climbed above Palace in the league and the prospect of Premier League survival has improved.

Crystal Palace’s Premier League future does not seem as bright. With the team currently showing no evidence that things are going to get better, Sam Allardyce’s record of never being relegated from the Premier League is in serious danger of coming to an end. In fact the only possibility of preserving that record appears to be if he is sacked before the end of the season.

At the end of the day…

Palace’s negative approach of appointing a manager with the intent of trying to plug the holes in an already sinking ship, has not worked. If they had tried to find a coach who could change the way the team played in a positive manner, as their fellow relegation candidates did, they would have a better chance of Premier League survival. Let’s face it, things could hardly have been any worse than they are right now. I hate to say it, but Palace are going down!

Is It Time For Wenger To Go?

With his contract at Arsenal set to expire this summer and a large number of fans calling for change, is it time for Arsene Wenger to go?

As of yet there has been no clear indication from either club or manager that a new deal is on the table. There have been the usual rumours of possible replacements floating around and of course the Arsenal board would be foolish to have not explored possible candidates. However I believe they currently lean towards keeping Wenger in place. With Arsenal never failing to finish outside of the Premier League top four under his guidance, they have benefitted from being a Champions League ever present. It is this accomplishment that I believe currently influences the Arsenal board’s stance more than any other. Whether the team can repeat the feat this season, will in my opinion also be the deciding factor in both Wenger’s and the club’s final decision.

If Arsenal do finish in the top four, thereby securing another year of Champions League football then I believe the club will look to tie down the Frenchman to at least another year. If Arsenal were a club run on the sole basis of winning trophies then Wenger would have been shown the door a long time ago. I can't think of any other club with Arsenal's stature and history of winning trophies that would have stuck with a manager without a league title since 2004. However, Arsenal is not run like any other of the top English teams. There is as much importance placed on financial stability as there is on on-field success. To lose the guarantee of Champions League football that Wenger has been able to provide, would have a massive effect on the club. However, if Arsenal do qualify for the Champions League next season then I believe the summer is the opportune moment for the club to take a new managerial direction. The continued financial benefit and player attraction that the world’s premier club competition provides will be imperative to any chance of success that an incoming manager will have.

If Arsenal fail to achieve Champions League qualification then I believe Wenger’s decision would be a simple one from his point of view. At 67 years of age, would he really be relishing the prospect of a complete rebuilding job? In 21 years in charge at Arsenal, Wenger has never faced the prospect of a season without top European competition and the strong possibility of losing some of the team’s best players. I can’t see him signing up to that task at this late stage of his career.

Let’s say Arsenal don’t qualify for the Champions League, Wenger calls time on his career and the club need to appoint a new manager to bring back the glory days. Any incoming manager would immediately have two important tasks to have any chance of achieving this. The first is to sort out the futures of contract rebels, Mesut Ozil and arguably more importantly, Alexis Sanchez. The second, to sign the players he would want to shape the team in his own style. Both of these tasks would need substantial investment from the club. Arsenal, traditionally have not been able to spend the same amounts of money as some of England’s other top clubs. They don’t benefit from a billionaire owner as Chelsea and Manchester City do, nor do they generate the type of income that Manchester United boast. So with the lack of Champions League income, not to mention how much remains of the £260m borrowed to build The Emirates Stadium, that sort of investment is unlikely to materialise. So would the club be able to survive an extended hiatus from the Champions League such as the one United currently find themselves in? Without the funds and unless they can find a manager with the same ability to attract big name players as Jose Mourinho, it’s unlikely.

At the end of the day...

Arsenal’s future hangs in the balance. If they don’t finish in the top four, Wenger will likely retire and any replacement will have a huge task on their hands. If they do finish in the top four, the board needs to be bold and take the decision to find a new manager. A change is definitely needed and Champions League football gives a new coach the best chance of success.